The Merchant's Crossroads (Prisoner's Dilemma)
What this shows: Why two traders might snatch from each other, even when sharing goods makes both richer.
How this works (3 sentences)
In a Prisoner's Dilemma, snatching the chest always earns more gold in a single day no matter what the other trader chooses. When you trade for 10 days in a row, your past choices build a reputation that changes how the hooded traveler treats you tomorrow. Sharing goods earns 3 gold each per day, while mutual snatching traps both traders with just 1 measly coin each.
| They Share | They Snatch | |
|---|---|---|
| You Share |
+3, +3
Prosperous Trade
|
+0, +5
Robbed Blind!
|
| You Snatch |
+5, +0
Heist Jackpot
|
+1, +1
Bitter Scuffle
|
The Grand Guild Cup (Tournament)
What this shows: How honorable, forgiving traders beat greedy bandits when the whole guild trades together.
How this works (3 sentences)
In a round-robin tournament, all guild members play a full trading season against everyone else and their own twin. Adding foggy weather (noise) tests whether traders can forgive an honest courier blunder without starting an endless feud. Characters who are nice, retaliating, and forgiving rise to the top of the guild.
The Living Valley (Evolution)
What this shows: How prosperous characters inspire new apprentices while losing philosophies vanish from the valley.
How this works (3 sentences)
Under replicator dynamics, each generation trades across the valley and successful characters grow their share of the town. Any guild philosophy that falls below 0.1% of the valley loses its last workshop and goes extinct. Who survives depends on the starting mix of neighbors and whether foggy blunders break fragile alliances.
The Tavern Treasure Split (Ultimatum Game)
What this shows: Why pride and fairness matter so much that partners will sink a treasure chest to punish greed.
How this works (3 sentences)
You and Captain Mara haul up a chest of 100 gold coins, and one of you proposes how to divide the loot. If the responder accepts, both pocket their share, but if they feel insulted and reject, they kick the chest overboard so both get zero. Cold rational logic says a partner should accept even 1 coin, yet real people reject stingy splits below 30 coins.
The Royal Curio Bazaar (Auction House)
What this shows: How bazaar rules change your best bid and why winning a mystery pirate jar often loses gold.
How this works (3 sentences)
In a first-price auction, bidding your full value leaves zero profit, so clever collectors shade their bids downward. In a second-price auction, bidding your exact true value is always best because the price you pay is set by the second-highest rival. When bidding on the Sunken Pirate Jar where everyone only guesses the coin count, the winner usually had the wildest overestimate and suffers the winner's curse.
If a curio is worth 80 gold to you and you bid 80, your profit when you win is zero. Against 3 rivals, shading your bid to 3/4 of your value (60 gold) balances your odds of winning with a healthy profit.
The winner pays only what the second-place rival bid. Overbidding risks buying at a loss, and underbidding misses profitable wins. Bidding your exact true value is always the dominant choice.
The Barnacle Jar holds the same true coin count for everyone, and each collector squints through the glass to make a noisy guess. Bold Barnaby bids his full optimistic guess and usually overpays!